⛈️ Severe Weather Update: Well, March is coming in as expected. Our Severe Weather Threat has been upgraded for parts of the state on Wednesday. Welcome to March. If you're new to North Carolina, we can have severe weather at any point of the year, but the spring is when we have most of our severe weather. I know there has been lots of crazy over the past few months across North Carolina, but rest assured, I'll be here to walk you through everything no matter what, without the hype in layman's terms. The amazing meteorologists at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center have issued a level 1, level 2, and now a level 3 out of 5 risk of Severe Weather on Wednesday. I don't make my own severe weather outlooks; these are official from the National Weather Service. I code them into my graphics to help you better see them.
📌WHAT: A rather strong spring cold front will roll through the state on Wednesday. Winds just above the ground will be incredibly strong, 60- 75kts at the 850 MB level. We will have a classic high shear, low CAPE setup on Wednesday. (Wind shear is a change in wind speed and/or direction over a short distance) We will have some wind changing with heights across Eastern North Carolina. This is where the greatest threat of an isolated tornado appears to be.
Threats ⚠️: Several strong-to-severe thunderstorms will likely occur across the state. The greatest risk for severe weather appears to be across Central/Eastern, where the level 2 and level 3/5 (Enhanced Risk) are. The setup will be a classic A squall line, or more accurately a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS), is a line of thunderstorms, often forming along or ahead of a cold front. The wind energy alfot would suggest damaging wind gusts of 60-70+MPH will be the main risk with these storms. However, there will be some support for an isolated tornado threat, mainly from Raleigh east embedded in the line as it moves east. We will have extensive wind shear aloft 40-55kt; this will support gusty winds throughout the day, even outside of thunderstorms statewide. The mountains could see wind gusts of 40-55MPH in spots Tuesday night into Wednesday outside of showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere across the state, it'll be breezy with high wind gusts in storms.
TIMING⏰: Showers and storms will move from West to East across the state. It looks like early morning across Western North Carolina, late morning into midday across Central NC, and early/mid-afternoon across Eastern North Carolina. I'll fine-tune the timing and post a map later today. I have some future radar images below. Don't take them literally.
The Bottom Line: Severe Weather is nothing new in North Carolina; we always see it. There is no reason to panic; be weather-aware on Wednesday and have ways to get warnings in case you need them. I do think Wednesday will be rather active, with some wind damage expected in pockets as the storms move east. There will be the potential for some power outages. As always, I'll monitor the forecast over the next 24 hours and provide updates as needed. There is no reason to freak out; we will be just fine. Have a plan in place, and you'll be good!
-Ethan