⛈️ Monday Storm Update: We will have to watch this afternoon and evening for some more thunderstorm development mainly across Central/Eastern NC. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a low risk level 1/5 for Severe Weather this afternoon and evening mainly from Raleigh/Fayetteville north and east. CAPE Values and some wind shear could allow for some thunderstorms to develop, the threat is conditional if we see some clearing skies later today and this afternoon. Models have done a terrible job recently with environmental conditions. Looking over morning radar data, we’re seeing breaks in the rain which could allow for some clearing skies.
‼️ WHAT: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form south of the front. Near outflow and differential heating boundaries as well as a weak surface trough across parts of Central and Eastern NC in the level 1 area on the map below. Damaging winds/heavy rainfall are the main threats. However, due to the front and some boundaries around, I can't completely rule out an isolated spin-up tornado. The threat for severe weather is not high, but a storm or two could get going. I’ll be monitoring closely like normal, no reason to panic.
⏰ Timing: 1PM-10PM for any severe weather risk slowing as night falls.
👀 The Bottom Line: The Severe Weather risk is not very high, but we could see some strong to possibly severe storms this afternoon and evening if atmospheric conditions recover. Since we have several boundaries and wind shear in place, I can’t rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon or evening. Just stay aware, nothing to freak out about but have a plan in place in case a warning is issued from the National Weather Service. Make sure you can get warnings from several sources.
-Ethan
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