⛈️ Severe Weather Update: A multiple-day severe weather outbreak is expected to begin across the Central US today, moving into the SE United States/Deep South on Saturday, and reaching parts of North Carolina on Sunday. A rare HIGH RISK (Level 5/5) (Image 2) risk of Severe Weather has been issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center for parts of Mississippi and Alabama for Saturday. These risks are rarely issued, and the threat is for a tornado outbreak across this area. People with interests should closely follow forecasts and advice from local officials. Here in North Carolina, our severe weather threat is lower looking over the latest data, I am confident we won't see the nearly the severe weather outbreak our neighbors south and west of us will see, but we will likely still see Severe Weather, including some overnight.
📌WHAT: A strong mid-March cold front will bring the risk of severe weather to Western North Carolina late Saturday night (Sunday morning early) and the rest of the state during the day on Sunday. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 risk for the entire state pretty much, and a level 3/5 risk for the SW part of the state. I have combined both Saturday's Storm Prediction Center Outlook and Sunday's outlook into one on image 1 to make it easier for people to understand the risk, don't get all caught up in the outlook. Know the potential is there anywhere in the state.
⚠️ THREATS: We will have an abundance of wind energy aloft (Wind Shear), but we will lack another key ingredient (CAPE). Well, this threat is ingredient is uncertain. If models trend more, I could see the level 3/5 risk being added for parts of Central and Eastern North Carolina on Sunday. However, there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding that. I expect it to be windy Saturday night into Sunday across the state even outside of thunderstorms, with 30- 45 MPH winds outside of the mountains and higher wind gusts outside of storms in the mountains up to 60MPH in spots.
-A squall line is expected to advance east into the state on late Saturday night into Sunday morning; strong to severe storms are possible with this line across the Mountians damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats, but an isolated tornado threat is there so before you go to bed make sure you have ways to get warnings that'll wake you up mainly West of Hickory. The severe weather risk in the rest of the state will start on Sunday after sunrise further west and continue until lunchtime in the afternoon or early evening in Central and Eastern NC. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat will also be possible. Damaging winds seems like the main threat on Sunday but we will need to watch and see if the tornado threat increases on Sunday. I can't rule out localized flooding in spots as storms move through due to heavy rainfall.
The Bottom Line: Severe Weather is nothing new in North Carolina; we always see it. There is no reason to panic; be weather-aware on Saturday night/Early AM Sunday West and Sunday Central and Eastern North Carolina and have ways to get warnings in case you need them. It could be rather active, with several severe storms likely. There will be the potential for some power outages. As always, I'll monitor the forecast over the next 24 hours and provide updates as needed. There is no reason to freak out; we will be just fine. Have a plan in place, and you'll be good! I'll have more updates to come over the next 24 hours as always.
-Ethan