Severe Weather Update: Once again, we will have the risk of strong to severe storms across the state. Our setup today will be a little different compared to the past few days; we will have an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) which is a thunderstorm complex that is ongoing across Tennessee that will move into the Western parts of the state this evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all areas from Greensboro West under a level 2/5 risk of severe weather. Areas across Central NC are under a level 1/5 risk mainly because of the loss of daytime heating and how late the thunderstorm complex will roll through.
The environment across Western NC will be primed for severe storms this evening; the main threat appears to be damaging winds, although an isolated spin-up tornado can't be possible. The thunderstorm complex will push east through the late evening, and we could see a couple of strong to severe storms across Central NC. The severe weather threat should diminish as it pushes towards Eastern/Coastal NC early Monday morning.
The thunderstorm complex will roll into the state after about 4PM through the late evening into the overnight hours; models struggle with this setup, so we should be aware from about 4PM to 1AM, clearing west to east.
The Bottom Line: Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the early overnight hours, especially in Greensboro/Charlotte and points west, with a lower risk east. An isolated popup storm can’t be ruled out across Eastern/Coastal NC this evening. I’ll be following the progression of the storms closely and will provide updates like normal. Have a good day.
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