⛈️ Sunday Severe Weather Threat: On Sunday afternoon, we will have our first substantial chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in more than 3 weeks across the state. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state under a level 1/5 risk for severe weather and Raleigh and Greensboro north under a level 2/5 risk. A few strong to severe storms with damaging winds will be the main threat on Sunday.
WHAT: The Lee surface trough and an approaching cold front will be the lift for the thunderstorms, so we should have ample CAPE (CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy), which is the amount of fuel available to a developing thunderstorm. More specifically, it describes the instability of the atmosphere and provides an approximation of updraft strength within a thunderstorm.) I expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. We should have some wind shear that would help allow for some microbursts leading to a damaging winds threat on Sunday.
⏰ Timing: Storms will start developing on and off from 1-10PM. We will not really have lines of storms; we will just have scattered pulse popup storms with conditions allowing for some severe weather.
⚠️ Threats: Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main threats, but a couple of storms could be strong to severe statewide but, especially across the level 2 area; we could have some damaging winds. Conditions do not support tornados; I can't say the threat is 0% because we always keep a 1% chance just in case a storm wants to go crazy; that would be mainly in the level 2 area. However, the main threat is damaging winds, so we should not have to worry about tornadoes at this point.
The Bottom Line: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the state, and a couple could become strong to severe with damaging winds. Stay weather aware Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. There is no reason to panic; it is much-needed rain, and we need any storms we can get. Coverage will be about 50-60% of the state on Sunday. I'll have updates like normal all Sunday afternoon/evening.
-Ethan
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