Tracking the Tropics and any potential impacts to North Carolina.

🌀 FULL TROPICAL UPDATE 3PM FRIDAY: Good afternoon guys, we’ve been talking about this system for a while, and I sound like a broken record. However, here are my full detailed thoughts about Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 soon to be Tropical Storm Debby. As of 2PM, the system was located 360 miles southeast of Key West Florida, with winds of about 30 miles. It is Potential Tropical Cyclone because it does not have a closed center yet to be closed a Tropical Depression or Storm but could impact land soon. The first cone of uncertainty was issued around 11AM from the National Hurricane Center, and we will get a new update around 5PM; new cones for the foreseeable future will come out at 5AM/11AM/5PM/11PM so no forecast change has occurred, but I am doing my regularly scheduled in deep tropical update that’ll give you everything you need to know. The first cone of uncertainty from the National Hurricane Center has the system impacting the North Carolina coast next week, there remains considerable uncertainty beyond 3-4 days with the forecast, but we could be looking at least a tropical storm impacting parts of North Carolina mid-week. Followers are reminded on the considerable uncertainty, and should also prepare for a potential Hurricane too. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka. The National Hurricane Center says. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system.

PLEASE DON’T PANIC Y’ALL: WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH SO MANY STORMS IT IS NOT THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT.

KEY MESSAGES: (CLIFF NOTES) The system will impact Florida this weekend as a Tropical Storm we can expect tropical storm conditions across parts of Florida, along with heavy rainfall. If you have travel plans to Florida, no need to cancel just be aware of a couple of wet days this weekend before back to normal Florida weather next week.

-After that the forecast gets complicated; the system is going to move over Florida and then potentially back into the Atlantic Ocean. Where exactly moves will matter to how strong the system will get, a storm along to just offshore will lead to a strong system potentially making a run at hurricane status. A track inland over Georgia/South Carolina will lead to a weak system with more of a rain setup. There is still a chance the system continues well offshore only bringing high surf and rip currents to North Carolina; that is still a possibility and is included in the cone.

-Remember the cone is where the center of the storm could track just because you’re in the cone does not mean you’ll be hit directly.

👀 The greatest impacts right now appear to be along the coast with limited impacts across Central/Western NC right now maybe some rain. Timing for NC impacts, if we get direct impacts, would be Tuesday-Thursday

👀 So, what should I do in North Carolina? It is too soon to nail down specific impacts. If you have plans along the coast this weekend, go; if you have week-long trips, go. If the system strengthens and evacuations are issued, you might have to leave. At the very least, be prepared for some gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and, for sure, high surf and rip currents next week. Keep an eye on the forecast, as this is a rapidly evolving forecast.

✔️That was the Cliff notes; if I lost you there, you know everything you need to know.

🌊➡️Now deep into the forecast.

IMAGES 2/3: Possible Tracks! I have dug through every possible model forecast, you can think of I have looked at everything for the last 3 hours to figure out possible solutions to our track next week. Where the system tracks matters and will make a big difference, you can take the forecast cone literally right now. The forecast track next week has low confidence, as the National Hurricane Center pointed. We should be prepared for a hurricane too; I can’t rule that out. The best-case scenario forecast is a Tropical Storm, but a Hurricane is still possible so we should not let our guard down.

There are 3 possible scenarios right now; steering currents are expected to break down next week, leaving a very complicated, complex, and erratic forecast. The setup we have a strong ridge of high pressure to the east, and a trough over the northern US that’ll start to grab the system and bring it north. However, models show it not making it all the way the ridge to the east building back in and pushing the system west, potentially stalling it before another trough over the Ohio valley could move in midweek. The timing and where that trough goes will be key; small changes in the trough position will delay the storm system.

TRACK 1 BEST CASE: The system is able to pass far enough east that direct impacts don’t occur in North Carolina but High Surf and Rip Currents are likely as the system passes east of our coast. There is still some model support, so this can still happen. Although the trend today is not for this to happen.

TRACK 2 WORST CASE: The system makes landfall in Florida, then moves into the Atlantic Ocean and hugs the coastline along the warm Gulf Stream waters; this would allow for the system to strengthen and possibly be a hurricane. Then the system could then turn and make landfall in North/South Carolina as the ridge blocks the system from moving out to sea as it builds back NC. This would bring the worst-case impacts, we would see Rain/Wind/Surge/Tornadoes/Flooding. Again the greatest impacts at this point on the forecast would be along the coast.

TRACK 3 BETTER CASE: This is not the best case, but it won’t be the end of the world; the system tracks further inland over GA/SC/NC bringing mainly heavy rain and some gusty winds; this would likely impact more areas of North Carolina but would not be anything crazy.

➡️😎The Bottom Line: The forecasts are going to fluctuate all weekend long; please don’t panic, don’t fall for hype, don’t raid the grocery stores. Stay weather-aware this weekend keep checking back for updates. Inland areas, just stay aware; right now the greatest impacts look along the coast. Along the coast, check your hurricane plan, and have it ready in case you need it. Be ready for potentially some heavy rainfall and gusty winds at the bare minimum. If you have travel plans to the coast be flexible in case you need to change them. Keep checking back, and I’ll walk you through the forecast. I am not going to put forecast impacts at this point regarding rainfall amounts, wind gusts, storm surge; the forecast is way to fluid we are still 4-5 days away. Take care all, I’ll have you covered no matter what. This is a complicated forecast, but I am determined to keep you informed. Stay tuned to local officials for potential information as well. National Hurricane Center/ National Weather Service are all great sources. The National Hurricane Center forecasters are experts and know best; we will be watching them closely.

-Ethan