🌀NEW TROPICAL UPDATE: Good morning, all. I am sorry for the delay in getting the forecast update. I was trying to get some rest and let the models update. Tropical Storm Debby developed yesterday; we will be talking about it all week long. I am going to sound like a broken record, but I am doing my best to explain you this highly complex forecast. My goal is to keep you calm, updated, and without the hype. This forecast beyond 2-3 days is about as clear as mucky water, as my grandpa would say; we have a lot still to watch. One thing that is becoming clear is that Life-Threatening rainfall amounts for the Carolinas and Georgia look like a sure bet. We should prepare for Flash Flooding and River Flooding by the end of the week. I am going to run through everything below; followers are reminded about the considerable uncertainty still on the forecast. Where the system stalls along or off the coast of GA/SC/NC will make all the difference in the forecast. All the technology we have these days, we still have a long way to go with hurricane forecasting. I have been inundated with DMs and comments on the page. Please note that during active weather, I can’t answer every single one of your questions and comments, but I am doing my very best. Let’s run through everything; for those who don’t want to read much, I have cliff notes below, and I will be recording another video update this afternoon, too.
Tropical Storm Debby is located 130 miles WSW of Tampa as of 11AM with winds of 65MPH nearing Hurricane Strength; the system has been slowly getting its act together and will likely make landfall as a Hurricane tomorrow morning near the Florida Big Bend area. The newest forecast cone has shifted a little, and now has Debby near Cat 2 Hurricane status at landfall tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center says “There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas.” I’ll explain all my thinking on this below.
I have seen so many comments about whether it will be like Matthew or Florence with rainfall amounts; while the rainfall amounts are high, I don’t expect that amount, especially in North Carolina. However, record amounts of rain are on the way, with upwards of 15 inches of rain possible along the coast this week. PLEASE DON’T PANIC Y’ALL: WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH SO MANY STORMS IT IS NOT THE END OF THE WOLRD AS WE KNOW IT. Just calm down; a lot can and will change over the next 36-84 hours. Weather changes so quickly, especially with complicated steering currents.
-Here’s the forecast as we see it now.
KEY MESSAGES (CLIFF NOTES)
👌Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. The system will make landfall Monday along the Florida coast
👌After landfall, the system will move as slow a turtle into Northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and finally to North Carolina, most likely. This process is going to take several days, where the system stalls, meanders will make all the difference. Where exactly moves will matter to how strong the system will get; a storm along to just offshore will lead to a strong system potentially making a run at hurricane status. A track inland over Georgia/South Carolina will lead to a weak system with more of a heady rain setup. Lower winds and that stuff. Unfortunately, we still don’t know and I am sorry there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in terms of the long forecast track.
👌The National Hurricane Center says, “Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the intensity forecast is also of low confidence.
👌Remember the cone is where the center of the storm could track just because you’re in the cone does not mean you’ll be hit directly.
👌The greatest impacts to North Carolina appear to be starting Tuesday night-Friday, we will start to see some rain from Debby along the coast tomorrow though.
👌Tornado Threat, Wind Threat, Surge Threat these threats are still possible especially along the coast but a very fluid forecast and we won’t have a better idea on this for another 24 hours. Right now the official forecast shows a weaker system, but I can’t rule out a stronger system maybe near Hurricane status along our coast midweek. I’ll explain my thinking on this below in. See below for more on this.
👌This forecast is by far not set in stone, where it stalls and sits is all the forecast will change.
👌So what should I do in North Carolina? It is too soon to nail down specific impacts; if you have plans along the coast this weekend go; if you have week-long trips go. If the system strengthens and evacuations are issued, you might have to leave. At the very least, be prepared of some gusty winds heavy rainfall, and for sure high surf and rip currents next week. Keep an eye to the forecast, as this is a rapidly evolving forecast. Right now heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding are the main threats. Flash Flooding is one of the leading causes of death with Hurricanes.
The National Weather Service in Wilmington says “The very slow progression of the storm will result in very significant rainfall amounts across NE South Carolina and SE North Carolina. The amount of rainfall will likely result in life-threatening flash flooding.”
🌊➡️Now deep into the forecast.
Images 2/3 POSSIBLE TRACKS: This is a complicated forecast; it is not boring to forecast, that is for sure. There are so many little factors that we will have to monitor with this system. The GFS stalls the system down off the SC/GA coast, which would lower direct impacts to North Carolina. However, other models move the system further north and stall it along our coast as a little stronger system. Where the system tracks matters and will make a big difference, you can take the forecast cone literally right now. The forecast track next week has low confidence as the National Hurricane Center pointed out. The EURO and ICON show a stronger system off the NC/SC coastline mid week, while the GFS just shows a big rainmaker for the SE. You can argue that either forecast model is correct; looking at the upper-level atmosphere where the weakness in the ridge of high pressure and the high pressure over the SW United States opens up will allow for the system to move.
So based on all the available data, I’ve been able to rule out the track missing the coastline entirely as I talked about yesterday it was a very low chance.
📌There are 2 possible scenarios right now; steering currents are expected to break down next week, leaving a very complicated, complex, and erratic forecast. In the setup we have a strong ridge of high pressure to the east, and a trough over the northern US that’ll start to grab the system and bring it north. However, models show it not making it all the way the ridge to the east, building back in and pushing the system west, potentially stalling it before another trough over the Ohio Valley could move in midweek. The timing and where that trough goes will be key; small changes in the trough position will delay the storm system.
TRACK 1 WORST CASE: The system makes landfall in Florida, then moves into the Atlantic Ocean and hugs the coastline along the warm Gulf Stream waters; this would allow for the system to strengthen, possibly be a hurricane. Then the system could then turn and make landfall in North/South Carolina as the ridge blocks the system from moving out to sea as it builds back NC. This would bring the worst-case impacts, we would see Rain/Wind/Surge/Tornadoes/Flooding. Again the greatest impacts at this point on the forecast would be along the coast.
TRACK 2 SORTA BETTER CASE: The system moves more inland over Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, and stalls somewhere in the low country of South Carolina, dropping historic rainfall. This would be a weaker storm for NC, kinda like the NHC current forecast cone leading mainly to a big heavy rainfall event and some weaker gusty winds, isolated tornado threat, maybe?
Regardless either track will bring heavy rainfall to NC potential flooding, we will have to monitor rivers and areas that flood first all week.
➡️😎The Bottom Line: The forecast will continue to fluctuate, but it appears that a good portion of North Carolina will at least see several inches of rainfall this week, with the best chance for widespread rain Tuesday-Friday heaviest along the coast. The forecasts are complex, and I expect more changes over the next 72 hours; please don’t panic, don’t fall for the hype, and don’t raid the grocery stores. Stay weather-aware and keep checking back for updates. Along the coast, check your hurricane plan and have it ready in case you need it. Be ready for potentially some heavy rainfall and gusty winds at the bare minimum. If you have travel plans to the coast be flexible in case you need to change them. Keep checking back; I’ll walk you through the forecast. Heavy rainfall looks to be the main threat right now; we will see periods of Flash Flooding. It is too soon to nail down exact impacts on Wind/Storm Surge (if any) Tornadoes etc that type of stuff. A stronger storm will have this stuff. A weaker storm will just dump rain on and off across NC. We will not have to worry about any droughts after this week, that’s for sure. I’ll have more updates throughout the rest of the day, so stay tuned.
-Ethan
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