Tropical Update: Well, here we go again, I guess. The long talked about Invest 98L is now Tropical Depression 9 as of 5 AM this morning, the National Hurricane Center officially declared it a Tropical Depression. Now, we have an official cone from the National Hurricane; they forecast it to be a Tropical Storm tomorrow; the next name on the list is Hermine. The system should move towards the Western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and then into the Gulf of Mexico. The early thinking is that though uncertainty is high, the system is currently forecasted to be a strong Cat 2 Hurricane approaching Cat 3 status. Interests along the Gulf Coast and the Southeastern United States should monitor the progress of the storm, especially on Florida's west coast. Beyond 3-4 days, the range of uncertainty is high, and models range over 700-1,000 miles in differences. So even in Florida, the uncertainty is still high, but if you are watching from FL or have friends/family make sure they know and stay alert through the weekend.
NC Impacts? The uncertainty beyond 3-4 days is way too high to say what we think for us. Could we see a storm? Yes, we could! Could the storm recurve out to sea after Florida? Yes, it could, or it could ride up the coast. We have decent odds of seeing a storm and decent odds of seeing nothing. No one knows right now, and I don't care what people think they know. No one has a clue where this system will go beyond 3-4 days. There are a lot of factors that will need to be figured out by models are forecasters next week. For now, let's enjoy this stunning fall weather. While also at least keeping an eye on this system, I'll have daily updates until it is gone, and sometimes more than one a day. However, don't fall for hype or scary models that seem false; I'll keep you posted as I've had for the past 6 years.
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