Tropical Storm Debby to bring impacts to North Carolina this week.

🌀FULL TROPICAL UPDATE: It is a new week, and guess what we’re still tracking Debby. Earlier this morning, it made landfall along the Florida coastline as a Hurricane and is now slowly moving over Florida. Interest regarding the forecast has been incredibly high regarding this forecast, I am going to do my best to walk you through the forecast and impacts from Debby to North Carolina. The goal is not to be first; it is to be right and give you with a calm and relaxing approach. Image two is my first call on potential impacts; due to the fluid forecast, this map is subject to change. I’ll be posting other maps/graphics today and tomorrow too. As of 11AM, Debby is located over northern Florida with winds of 70MPH; it’ll continue to weaken some, before likely restrengthening over the Atlantic Ocean.

KEY MESSAGES (CLIFF NOTES) I’ll break down image 2 further down on the page.

👌The newest forecast cone from The National Hurricane Center now forecasts Debby to restrengthen over the Atlantic Ocean with a forecast landfall now somewhere between Georgetown South Carolina, and the North Carolina/South Carolina line. The current forecast shows a 60MPH storm at landfall, I cation you there is the potential this storm could be stronger near or a Hurricane status; looking through all the models I would say the best forecast is about 60MPH-80MPH near landfall midweek. A trend we will watch closely, I always say prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

👌Direct impacts from Debby will start as early as tomorrow along the coast, spreading inland late Tuesday into Wednesday. We will see bands on and off from Debby through at least Friday. The least impact very little will be across the mountains.

👌Central NC the key impact will be periods of heavy rainfall. Some Flash Flooding is possible late in the week.

👌Eastern NC: Heavy rainfall will be the main threats with Flash Flooding along with some gusty winds and even a Tornado threat, landfalling tropical systems can produce tornadoes on the right hand side of the storm.

👌SE North Carolina: Coastline beaches Brunswick/New Hanover/Pender County. The greatest impacts are expected here with significant rainfall, likely wind gusts up 40-55MPH highest along the beaches, maybe some 60MPH wind gusts. Isolated tornado threat, Storm Surge Possible along the beaches (Forecast is still fluid on this)

👌Outer Banks: Significant rainfall likely this week, Flash Flooding Likely in spots. Gusty winds 35-45MPH will be possible, Isolated Tornado Threat Possible as well Tuesday-Friday.

👌Heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding will be the main threats; we could see river flooding, especially as you head towards South Carolina.

👌Steering currents are weak and this system will move slowly and erratic, no model is going to be perfect some are stronger/weaker. I am taking the models and using my years of Tropical forecasting to make this forecast.

👌Let me calm some people down, no this will not be a repeat of Florence in North Carolina. Significant rainfall is likely and Flash Flooding but not Florence levels. We really can’t compare tropical system each one is different.

🌊➡️Now deep into the forecast.

IMAGE 2:

📌The forecast is complex, but looking through everything, this is what I see and think. The GFS model does not agree with this forecast, but I am leaning on the EURO, UKMET, ICON, and EURO ensembles to make this forecast. Here’s what I think for each area.

(GREATEST IMPACTS DARK RED) Significant rainfall is likely here, 7-15 inches of rain will be possible here leading to life threatening Flash Flooding, expect bands of rain leading to extremely heavy rainfall starting as soon as Tuesday. Significant flooding in flood prone areas will be possible this week across this area.

WIND: Gusty winds will be possible 25-40MPH Tuesday and Wednesday, with wind gusts increasing late Wednesday into Thursday 40-55MPH up to 60+ along the beaches. We will have to watch carefully how strong Debby restrengthens over the Atlantic this could change the forecast some. So, I’ll keep a close eye on this. Winds of this magnitude could bring down trees can cause power outages, so be possible.

TORNADO THREAT: An isolated tornado threat will be possible late Tuesday-Friday (more on that threat later on)

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge will be possible along the beaches, with several feet of surge possible in spots, especially Wednesday night-Friday. A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to rough surf, high rip currents, and some coastal flooding. We should get more information about the Surge threat tonight or tomorrow morning. I’ll keep you updated, but be aware of it now. Highest surge threat is Brunswick/New Hanover Beaches

(MODERATE IMPACTS ORANGE AREA) Outer Banks parts of Eastern/Sandhills NC. Significant rainfall is likely with 5-12 inches possible by Friday night; Flash Flooding is likely in flood-prone spots leading to problems mostly Tuesday night-Friday be aware and prepared.

WIND: Gusty winds are possible 35-45MPH great timing will be Wednesday night-Friday. Some down trees are possible along with isolated to scattered power outages, be aware of that in case your power goes out. We will have to watch carefully how strong Debby restrengthens over the Atlantic this could change the forecast some. So I’ll keep a close eye on this.

TORNADO THREAT: Isolated tornado threat will be possible late Tuesday-Friday (more on that threat later on)

STORM SURGE: Some storm Surge will could be possible along the beaches/sounds in spots, especially Wednesday night-Friday. A prolonged period of onshore flow will lead to rough surf, high rip currents, and some coastal flooding. We should get more information about the Surge threat tonight or tomorrow morning.

(YELLOW AREA) The greatest threat here will be periods of rain, likely Tuesday night through Friday; on and off tropical bands could dump heavy rainfall at times 3-8 inches is a good bet for this area. Some Flash Flooding will be possible.

WIND: Gusty winds 20-35MPH will be possible a couple of isolated down trees and power outages can’t be ruled out due to wet grounds.

(VERY FEW IMPACTS) Western NC little impacts are expected some rain is possible Wednesday-Friday, although I am currently not forecasting much rainfall. Little to no impacts expected right now. If the track shifts some more/less rain could occur.

➡️😎The Bottom Line: There is no need to panic; be ready for some bumpy/changing weather this week. Don’t get caught up on what Debby is. Regardless impacts are expected. There are still a lot of uncertainties with the forecast, so I’ll be monitoring the trends and make updates as needed over the next 12-48 hours. I’ll walk you through everything to the best of my abilities follow advice from local county officials, the National Weather Service, and the National Hurricane Center. We will be just fine, have a plan in place, and be ready to use it. There will be impacts to ferries and even some bridges along the coast, especially the southern coast be aware of that.

I'll be here all the way through the storm like I have always have, stay tuned for more updates.

-Ethan