TROPICAL STORM HELENE UPDATE FOR NORTH CAROLINA: Overnight, Tropical Storm Helene continued to strengthen; it should become a Hurricane today and a major Hurricane soon after that. Helene will bring significant impacts to the mountains and foothills of North Carolina and lower impacts elsewhere across the state, but it will impact everyone in some way or another; this system will be very large. Impacts will be felt well outside of the cone, especially on the east side. I'll walk you through the rain, wind, and tornado threats below so you know what to expect across the state. Helene is expected to become a major Cat 3 Hurricane with winds of 120MPH before landfall Thursday night along the Big Bend area of Florida; track guidance remains rock solid; however, there is still not 100% confidence in the strength of the system it could end up a little stronger/weaker than currently forecasted by the National Hurricane Center. I don't think this will impact our forecast. Life-Threatening Storm Surge and Damaging winds are expected for a good portion of the Florida coastline starting later today into Thursday. Please follow advice from local officials in this area.
Below I'll walk you through the impacts on North Carolina. I am becoming really concerned about the impacts across parts of the mountains and foothills from Helene and not as concerned elsewhere across the state. Although some gusty winds/rain and an isolated tornado threat will remain.
One thing I am seeing this evening that is making me concerned is that folks in NC think because we're barely in the cone, we will not see anything. There is a huge concern for flooding rains across the mountains and foothills parts of the Piedmont (See my thoughts on that below). Gusty winds and even a tornado threat will be possible late Thursday into Friday, clearing out quickly by Friday evening for NC.
Here's what the National Hurricane Center says "Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall."
There is a growing risk of significant rainfall across parts of the state Wednesday-Saturday morning, with the greatest chances of heavy rainfall late today across the mountains into Thursday and Friday; rain will start to pile up; I am becoming increasingly worried about heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding for areas west of Greensboro into the mountains later this week. I have created a rainfall map using all the data available and my knowledge from past events. This map is effective starting today through Saturday morning. I'll break it down; the bottom line is that the potential for flash flooding, landslides, and river flooding is increasing across parts of the foothills and mountains. I've increased rainfall amounts for the mountains and decreased amounts for the rest of the state.
6-14 inches (Red): In the mountains and foothills, waves of rain will likely occur, with a Precursor Rainfall event likely later today and Thursday before the main rain from Helene moves in Friday morning, as a stalled frontal boundary will be around. I expect 6-14 inches of rain through Saturday, with locally higher amounts of 14+ inches along the Blue Ridge Escarpment; as rain begins to pill up, we can expect Flash Flooding across this year. Landslides are possible, along with the potential for river/creek flooding. The greatest risk of this would be Thursday night and Friday. Now is a great time to clean out gutters and make sure culverts and other drainage areas are prepared. Be prepared to evacuate and move to higher ground if you live in a location that normally floods. Areas that don't normally flood could flood. Mountainous terrain is particularly prone to rapid runoff, which can lead to dangerous flash flooding in valleys, rivers, creeks, and low-lying areas.
Key Safety Tips:
-Be prepared to move to higher ground at a moment's notice.
-Avoid camping, hiking, or traveling through areas near streams or rivers.
-Never attempt to drive through flooded roads or low water crossings. Turn around, don’t drown!
3-6 inches (Orange): I expect a few inches of rain across this area, with the best chance Thursday night into Friday; some localized Flash Flooding is possible in spots that normally flood first. (Still, some higher uncertainty here, exactly how the rain bands line up)
2-3 inches (Yellow): I expect a few inches of rain across this area, with the best chance Thursday night into Friday; some isolated Flash Flooding is possible in spots that normally flood first due to wet grounds. (Still, some higher uncertainty here, exactly how the rain bands line up)
1-3 inches (Blue) I expect some rain here; with the best chances of widespread rain on Friday, some locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. We will need to monitor areas that have seen significant rainfall over the past few days, especially Brunswick and New Hanover Counties. Any substantial rain could lead to more flooding. However, right now, it does not look like much rain. I'll update you if that changes. As we know, the weather can change at a moment's notice.
WIND:
40-55MPH (Red Area) The highest winds as Helene makes its closest pass will be across Western NC; wind gusts 40-55MPH will be possible, with locally higher amounts across the highest terrain Thursday night into Friday. What will these winds do.
Infrastructure and Property:
Tree Damage: Branches may break, and weaker trees could be uprooted. Fallen trees can damage homes, cars, and block roads.
Power Outages: These winds can bring down power lines, especially if trees or debris fall onto them, leading to scattered outages.
Roof and Building Damage: Older or poorly maintained structures may suffer minor damage, such as shingles being torn off or siding coming loose.
Outdoor Objects:
Loose Objects: Items like patio furniture, trash cans, and holiday decorations can be blown away or turned into dangerous projectiles.
Temporary Structures: Tents, awnings, and other lightweight structures may be damaged or overturned.
20-35MPH (Yellow Area): Wind gusts of 20-35MPH are possible Thursday night into Friday, and possibly a locally higher gust. With saturated soils, it won`t take very strong winds to bring down some trees and cause scattered power outages
35-45MPH (Orange Area): Wind gusts of 35-45MPH are possible, especially along the coast Thursday night into Friday, and possibly a locally higher gust. With saturated soils, it won`t take very strong winds to bring down some trees and cause scattered power outages.
I think the greatest impacts from Winds will be west, but a couple of gusts could bring down some trees and cause isolated power outages east, too.
TORNADO THREAT: An isolated tornado threat is possible across parts of Central and Eastern NC Thursday into Friday; this threat is fluid. I'll have more on that as we get closer over the next 24 hours and we see more short-range models. Stay tuned (see images 4-5 for more)
The Bottom Line: Helene is strengthening and expected to become a major Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in Florida Thursday night. Though the main impacts will be felt in Florida, the storm's large size will have significant effects on North Carolina, especially in the mountains and foothills as it moves north. Don't panic; have a plan in place for the mountains and foothills, and stay aware and prepared to move to higher ground. Be prepared for possible power outages, and don't be caught off guard. We will get through this storm just like we have all the others; I'll keep you posted, as always. The worst of the weather is late Thursday through Friday, looking much better by the weekend as this storm moves out. Take care y'all, and be prepared for flooding across the mountains and foothills. I hope the rainfall amounts are busted; if not, we could see significant to major flooding across part of Western NC.
-Ethan
תגובות