Winter Storm Update: We're still on track to see a Winter Storm it could be impactful across parts of the state, with other areas seeing just limited impacts. It looks like we will experience another Winter Storm this week, boy it has been busy for weather forecasters the last few months across North Carolina Hurricanes, Severe weather, snow/ice storms you name it, we have it. The forecast continues to be a headache with this storm, as with many Winter Storms in North Carolina. There are a lot of uncertainties regarding exact amounts, but I've been able to narrow down this to follow more of Scenario B which I talked about yesterday on my forecast update.
📌WHAT: Image 2 This looks like a classic Miller A storm setup; we will have a low forming across the Gulf and intensifying off the East Coast of the United States, pushing moisture inland Wednesday into Thursday across North Carolina. High pressure to the north will supply cold air, which will allow for parts of North Carolina to likely experience Winter Weather. After reviewing the data, we will have a low come up out of the Gulf and develop and strengthen off our coast during that period. Pieces of energy will transfer from the west across the state, and help develop the low-pressure system off the coast. This will setup a dry slot of some across parts of Western NC, so I only think rather limited snowfall across the Western part of the state due to lower moisture contents.
⚠️WHAT WILL FALL: Region by Region:
Light Blue (Flakes to Light Accumulating Snow): Here, a dry slot will set up, which will lead to limited snowfall; it should be mostly all snow that falls. There will be some spots here with light snow accumulations and some spots just seeing flakes. At this point, it does not appear to be a major snow event, but some moderate impacts are possible to travel on Wednesday and Thursday where snow falls.
Dark Blue (Highest Chance For Several Inches of All Snow) Northern North Carolina into Northeast North Carolina as the low strengthens off the coast, moisture will be thrown inland. This will lead to a section of several inches of accumulating snow; travel impacts are likely starting Wednesday morning into Thursday and potentially lingering into Friday across this area.
Dark Purple Area (Battleground Between Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain) This area is one of the higher uncertainties; there will be a good amount of mixed precipitation with a mix of snow/sleet/Freezing rain, possibly a couple inches of snow/sleet will be possible with some Freezing rain further south in the dark purple area. Impacts to travel likely for Wednesday and Thursday across this area improving Thursday afternoon into Friday, lingering impacts though like normal. Hoping for more snow in this area and less ice so we don't have to worry about power outages. Trends in moisture amounts and the dreaded warm nose will be monitored over the next 24 hours, which will help set up snow amounts.
Pink Area ( Mainly Just Freezing Rain Ice Storm?) Here is where the temps will be near freezing, but an intense warm nose aloft should create for plain rain falling into a below-freezing area, allowing for Freezing rain to accumulate. An impactful ice storm with travel impacts likely with the potential for power outages as ice builds up in this region; hoping models trend to lower outages over the next 24 hours.
A Winter Storm Watch has been posted for most of Central and Eastern NC, where confidence is highest for more significant impacts. Other areas west could see Winter Weather Advisories later.
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👀: The Bottom Line: I think the odds of an impactful Winter Storm, both from snow and ice, are increasing; we will have to monitor for impacts Wednesday and Thursday across the state. Forecasting is a science; please don't panic and forecasts are going to be all over the place due to the high uncertainties. I think some areas across parts of Central/Eastern NC could end up with an impactful snow/ice storm. Hopefully, models will trend lower or have more snow to lessen the impacts from ice. The system will continue to get sampled over the next 12 hours, allowing for better data. We should have a better picture over the next 12-24 hours. I am walking through this slowly and will have my first call snow/ice map out tonight or in the morning. There is no reason to raid the grocery stores, but if you're across parts of Central/Western NC and parts of Eastern NC, start to be aware of potential impacts mid-week into the end of the week, thanks to cooler air anything that falls will stick around into the weekend. I'll walk you through the forecast for the next 48 hours, sharing updates as I see fit. That'll help you and your family make decisions with the best data I have and experience forecasting winter weather events over the last 9 years.
-Ethan