Winter Storm Evening Update: Good evening everyone; we're now less than 24 hours from the start of our next winter storm. I am providing an update to my snow/ice maps. Overall, I am feeling pretty good about my maps. I've made a couple changes based on the data today; I've decided to cut back the snow totals across the Triad and Western Piedmont due to the anticipated dry spot that'll form, so only limited moisture is expected across the Foothills and Piedmont so I am thinking lower snow totals in these areas. I have also pulled the 4-7 inches to NE North Carolina, where I feel the most snow will fall. Over the last months, weather forecasters in North Carolina have been busy. I've spent the last several hours pouring through countless data, looking at atmospheric profiles, and using my experience from past events to make my snow/ice maps below. I'll explain the forecast for each region below; some areas will have an impactful winter storm, while others will have more of a nuisance event
📌WHAT: This looks like a classic Miller A storm setup; we will have a low forming across the Gulf and intensifying off the East Coast of the United States, pushing moisture inland Wednesday into Thursday across North Carolina. High pressure to the north will supply cold air, which will allow for parts of North Carolina to likely experience Winter Weather. After reviewing the data, we will have a low come up out of the Gulf and develop and strengthen off our coast during that period. Pieces of energy will transfer from the west across the state, and help develop the low-pressure system off the coast. This will set up a dry slot across parts of Western/parts of the Foothills and Piedmont NC, so I only think there will be rather limited snowfall across the Western part of the state due to lower moisture content. So more of a minor event across the Triad into the Foothills and parts of the mountains.
⚠️HOW MUCH WILL FALL: Region by Region:
1-3 Inches (Dark Blue): This area is built into two sections. I am expecting 1-3 inches of snow across parts of Central North Carolina and then back across most of the mountains. Areas across Central NC have the greatest risk of seeing 1-3 inches of snow and sleet mixing in with the red-hatched area. Due to warmer air aloft working, which will result in snow melting then refreezing into sleet. Sleet cuts down on snowfall totals but makes for a mess with travel. There is a high bust potential here, and the area from Raleigh and Greensboro northeast could end up with some more snowfall when it is all said and done, but the impacts are the same. Don't get caught up on the exact amounts of snow; the impacts on travel will be the same. I have adjusted this area and removed the 1-3 inches from most of the Triad this evening.
Across the mountains, 1-3 inches are expected for most areas, but some areas in the (NW favored) mountains could see more snow of up to 3-5 inches in spots. The mountains are used to this snow, but impacts to travel are likely as well.
4-7 Inches (Dark Purple): This area appears to be the sweet spot across parts of the Northern portions of the state into Northeast North Carolina. 4-7 inches of mostly all snow is expected here; impacts to travel are likely here.
Dusting-1 Inch of Snow/Sleet (Light Blue Area): This area will see a lighter amount of snow and sleet mixing in where the red-hatched area is. There will be travel problems especially further east, where Freezing rain is going to mix in.
⚠️ Freezing Rain: Freezing rain is likely across the Sandhills and Southern to Southeast parts of the state into parts of Eastern North Carolina. If it is raining, but temps are below 32°, that is Freezing rain. A light glaze is expected across all of the sandhills and area east and south of Raleigh/ Charlotte, and more significant icing is expected across the bright pink areas with 0.05-0.30" icing likely from Fayetteville to Goldsboro to Greenville to New Bern/Jacksonville. Areas with higher icing could see scattered power outages and down trees; this is something we will watch for.
⏰: Snow/Ice: Will begin Wednesday morning across the Western part of the state and spread east into the late morning into the early afternoon hours. Snow/ice/rain will wind down from west to east through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There could be some scattered snow showers around on Thursday morning as well.
UNCERTAINTIES: As with nearly every winter event, forecasting winter weather is complex and hard. I've looked through all the data available, and there are still a good number of uncertainties regarding this forecast, such as exactly how much moisture works and where the snow/sleet/freezing rain will set up. Don't take these snow maps literally, as changes will likely occur over the next 24 hours. I'll continue to watch the forecast trends, work to be transparent, and change the forecast as it happens. This could be my final update to the snow map, as I don't like changing it too much.
👀: The Bottom Line: Based on the data I've seen today, I think there will still be a moderate Winter Storm here, especially across parts of Central/Northeast/Eastern North Carolina, where heavier snow/ice will fall. Across the Foothills/Triad/Mountains this will be a lower impact event. Forecasting is a science; please don't panic. We're always learning, and I promise that these forecasts will not be perfect. Forecasts are going to be all over the place due to the high uncertainties. I think some areas across parts of Central/Eastern NC could end up with an impactful snow/ice storm. There is no reason to raid the grocery stores, but if you're across parts of Central/Western NC and parts of Eastern NC, be aware of potential impacts tomorrow into the end of the week; thanks to cooler air anything that falls will stick around into the weekend. I do think areas not in the shade will see improvements pretty quickly, and some main treated roads will be fine during daylight hours. We will be just fine, I promise. I'll walk you through the forecast for the next 24 hours, sharing updates as I see fit. That'll help you and your family make decisions with the best data I have and experience forecasting winter weather events over the last 9 years
-Ethan